Tame, Don't Poke, the Bear - 18 October 2026

Trump should intervene to restrain Ukraine’s attacks on Russian diesel refining capacity. Those strikes threaten a segment of the global energy market that remains important for keeping prices stable, and continued disruption is not in the broader interest of energy consumers. He should also rein in European governments. Their current posture—escalating pressure on Russia while remaining heavily dependent on external energy supplies—resembles behavior that invites retaliation without a clear plan for managing the consequences. Provoking a major energy producer carries costs that extend well beyond the battlefield.