Putin in the Catbird Seat - Five Points. - 24 December 2025

Following are the five points that Putin put forward in February of 2022, which if agreed to by the United States, would end Russian military action in Ukraine.

Also, following are the five points which will be agreed to by the United States before the end of 2026 which will secure an end to hostilities in Ukraine and a beginning of Ukraine's reconstruction.

Oh wait! Four years, and unimaginable human carnage and infrastructure destruction, later! Hey! They're the same five points!

Putin's Terms - 5 points - to end hostilities in the US Proxy War with Russia.

Full Withdrawal of Ukrainian Forces: Ukraine must completely withdraw troops from the entire administrative territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (the four regions Russia partially occupies and annexed in 2022)—including areas not under Russian control at the time.

Ukrainian Neutrality: Kyiv must officially abandon aspirations to join NATO and commit to permanent neutral status, with no foreign military bases or alliances.

Demilitarization and “Denazification”: Significant limits on Ukraine’s armed forces size and armament; removal of “neo-Nazi” influences.

Recognition of Russian Control: International acknowledgment of Crimea as Russian (annexed 2014) and the four regions as part of Russia.

Lifting of Sanctions: The West must remove all sanctions on Russia.

Other Issues: Protection of Russian-speaking populations’ rights; Ukraine to remain non-nuclear.

So... in the nearly four years of war to date, what has been the cost of the conflict... the conflict that will be resolved with the same terms that were set forth at the beginning of the fight, four years ago?

Summary of Damage from the Russia-Ukraine War: February 2022 to December 2025 (GROK)

Introduction
The Russia-Ukraine war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, has inflicted profound human, economic, infrastructural, humanitarian, and environmental damage by December 2025. This summary draws from various international sources, including the United Nations, World Bank, and independent assessments, to provide a balanced overview. Estimates vary due to the ongoing conflict, underreporting, and differing methodologies among stakeholders (e.g., Ukrainian, Russian, and Western sources). Key impacts include over a million total casualties, reconstruction costs exceeding $500 billion for Ukraine alone, widespread displacement, and long-term environmental degradation. The war's effects extend globally, exacerbating inflation, food insecurity, and energy crises.

Human Casualties
Casualties represent the most direct human toll, encompassing both military and civilian losses. Total estimates for combined Russian and Ukrainian forces reach approximately 1 million, including around 240,000 killed in action as of September 2025, according to British intelligence. This figure highlights the war's intensity, with heavy attrition on both sides.

• Civilian Casualties: The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) documented 53,006 civilian casualties in Ukraine by October 31, 2025: 14,534 killed and 38,472 injured. However, the actual number is likely higher due to challenges in verification in occupied areas. Another estimate from Statista indicates over 13,800 civilian deaths verified by July 2025. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) reports over 53,000 civilian casualties overall, underscoring ongoing risks from airstrikes and shelling. Civilian deaths peaked in 2025 with over 1,900 recorded in the first 11 months, the highest since 2022.
• Military Casualties:
  • Russian Forces: Independent Russian media outlet Mediazona reports nearly 90,000 court claims for declaring servicemen dead or missing by December 1, 2025, suggesting confirmed deaths in the tens of thousands. Ukrainian sources claim Russian losses exceed 1.18 million total casualties (including wounded), though this may include unverified data.
  • Ukrainian Forces: Estimates are less transparent, but Ukrainian losses are believed to be substantial, contributing to the overall 1 million casualty figure. Sites like UA Losses track documented Ukrainian military deaths, though comprehensive totals are not publicly detailed.

These discrepancies arise from biased reporting: Western and Ukrainian sources often emphasize Russian losses, while Russian figures minimize their own.

Economic Damage
The war has caused trillions in direct and indirect costs, devastating Ukraine's economy while straining Russia's and rippling globally. Ukraine's GDP contracted sharply in 2022, with partial recovery hampered by ongoing destruction.

• To Ukraine: The World Bank estimates $524 billion needed for reconstruction and recovery over the next decade as of December 2024, covering housing, energy, and transport sectors. Direct infrastructure damage alone exceeds $175 billion, with residential buildings accounting for 33% and transport (roads, railways) for a significant share.
• To Russia: Sanctions and military spending have fueled inflation, peaking at 13.75% in 2022 and rising again in 2024-2025, leading to high interest rates and slowed growth. Professional forecasts project a $2.4 trillion total cost for Russia's invasion, including lost trade and productivity.
• Global Impact: The war equated to about 1% of global GDP loss in 2022 alone ($1.5 trillion at purchasing power parity), driven by supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices (e.g., food, fuel, fertilizers), and inflation. It compounded preexisting trends like extreme poverty and food insecurity, with effects felt in energy markets and stock volatility. EU countries closer to the conflict experienced greater economic strain.

Infrastructure Destruction
Russia's targeting of critical infrastructure has crippled Ukraine's functionality. By 2025, energy systems operate at only 50-60% capacity.

• Energy Sector: 40% of gas production facilities damaged; 18 combined heat and power plants destroyed or damaged, plus over 800 boiler houses. Nine large-scale attacks in 2024-2025 targeted energy infrastructure.
• Housing and Administrative: 13% of housing stock damaged or destroyed; 883 administrative buildings affected, including government offices.
• Agriculture and Transport: 130,000 units of equipment lost, 4 million tons of grain destroyed; widespread road and rail damage.

Humanitarian and Environmental Impact
The war has triggered one of the largest displacement crises in recent history, with cascading effects on health, education, and the environment.

• Displacement and Needs: 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and 6.9 million refugees abroad as of late 2025. Humanitarian needs affect 12.7 million people in Ukraine, with intensified attacks driving new displacement.
• Environmental Damage: Significant pollution (air, water, soil), biodiversity loss, and land contamination from unexploded ordnance. War-related emissions total millions of tCO2e, including from energy infrastructure (17 million tCO2e). Reduced greenhouse gases from economic shutdowns are offset by increased toxic risks.

Conclusion
By December 2025, the war's damage is staggering: human losses in the millions, economic costs in the trillions, and irreversible environmental harm. Recovery will require international support, but escalation risks persist. These figures, while substantiated, are conservative estimates amid ongoing hostilities.

Four years of fighting. Unimaginable loss of human life and infrastructure destruction. And to settle on the same terms specified by Putin before the war's beginning? Someone must have gotten some benefit out of four years of fighting:

Chronicle of Benefits from the Russia-Ukraine War: February 2022 to December 2025 GROK

The Russia-Ukraine war, initiated by Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, has primarily caused devastation, but certain parties have derived strategic, economic, geopolitical, and military advantages. This chronicle outlines key benefits by timeline, drawing from diverse sources including think tanks, economic analyses, and media across Western, Russian, and neutral perspectives. Benefits are often debated and intertwined with costs; for instance, while Russia gains territory, it faces sanctions. Stakeholders include Russia and its elites, the West (NATO/EU/US), the arms industry, China, and others like oil exporters. Ukraine itself has seen limited gains amid heavy losses, such as national cohesion and international integration.

2022: Invasion and Initial Realignments
The war's onset triggered immediate shifts, benefiting those positioned to exploit chaos.

• Russia's Territorial and Resource Gains: Russia seized control of about 20% of Ukraine's territory by year-end, including parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia (annexed in September 2022). This included 90% of Ukraine's coal reserves, 40% of metal resources, and critical minerals like lithium and rare earths, bolstering Russia's resource base for industrial and military needs. Population in occupied areas (5-7 million) added demographic depth, potentially increasing Russia's workforce by 3-5%.
• Russian Elites' Economic Windfalls: Sanction-induced exits by Western firms allowed Russian oligarchs to acquire assets at discounts. Examples: Vladimir Potanin bought Rosbank from Societe Generale; Vagit Alekperov (Lukoil) acquired Shell and Eni assets, becoming Russia's third-richest by year-end. Wealth of Russian billionaires grew despite sanctions, with trends in foreign asset takeovers and import substitution starting mid-2022.
• West/NATO's Security Enhancements: The invasion reduced Russia's military threat to NATO without Western casualties, as Ukraine's resistance degraded Russian forces. NATO gained renewed purpose; Finland and Sweden applied for membership in May 2022 (Sweden joined in 2024, Finland in 2023). EU granted Ukraine candidate status in June 2022, fostering unity and accelerating defense spending (e.g., Germany's €100 billion fund). Europe began diversifying energy away from Russia, reducing dependency by year-end.
• Arms Industry Boom: Global demand surged post-invasion. US firms like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon saw stock rises; European manufacturers (e.g., Rheinmetall) reported profit jumps from arms to Ukraine. By December, $24 billion in US equipment transferred via Presidential Drawdown Authority. Ukraine's domestic industry ramped up, producing more weapons than pre-war by late 2022.
• China's Strategic and Economic Advantages: China secured discounted Russian oil/gas (30-year deal signed pre-invasion but amplified post-2022). Beijing benefited from Russia's northern buffer, diverting Western focus from Taiwan/South China Sea. Exports to Russia expanded as Western trade waned.
• Other Beneficiaries: Oil exporters (e.g., Norway, Qatar) profited from price spikes; non-aligned states like India and Turkey gained diplomatic leverage in multipolarity. Ukraine fostered national unity under Zelenskyy, shattering pre-war inferiority complexes.

2023: Escalation and Consolidation
As the war intensified, benefits accrued through sustained attrition and realignments.

• Russia's Geopolitical Wins: Ties with China, Iran, and North Korea strengthened; e.g., arms/tech exchanges with Iran/NK. Nationalism boosted Putin's approval to over 80%, with real incomes rising amid 3.6% GDP growth. Military experience in drones/jamming advanced tactics.
• Russian Business Gains: Import substitution flourished; e.g., Viktor Kharitonin (Pharmstandard) doubled wealth via government contracts. Disruptive effects on European markets tripled fortunes in fertilizers (Dmitry Mazepin, Vyacheslav Kantor). Billionaire count rose to 125 by year-end.
• West's Practical Gains: Intelligence sharing with Ukraine provided insights into Russian tactics, correcting misconceptions. Drone innovations (e.g., Bayraktar partnerships) informed NATO strategies. EU emissions targets accelerated (to 57% reduction by 2030), benefiting renewables shift.
• Arms Sector Surge: Oil giants (Exxon, Shell) reaped $380 billion in profits from energy prices. Ukraine's industry hit $1.5 billion in investments; SIPRI noted European arms sales up significantly.
• China's Continued Profits: Became equal-largest importer of Russian oil; strategic support to Moscow tested and solidified alliance.
• Ukraine's Resilience: EU ties deepened; global support peaked, with innovations like Starlink enhancing capabilities.

2024: Attrition and Economic Shifts
Stalemate favored long-term players, with benefits from sustained demand and alliances.

• Russia's Sustained Advantages: Controlled 80% of Donbas; GDP grew 3.8%. Elite loyalty strengthened as billionaire wealth hit $360 billion (+$31 billion). Ukraine's Kursk incursion (August) was a setback, but overall strategic win claimed.
• Russian Elites: More takeovers (e.g., Arsen Kanokov acquired Starbucks/McDonald’s franchises). Domestic demand boosted retail (Sergey Studennikov's alcohol sales peaked).
• West/NATO's Maturation: NATO exercises expanded; US LNG exports boomed. Sanctions weakened Russia long-term, exposing kleptocracy. Bipartisan US support solidified European security.
• Arms Industry: Ukraine transitioned to domestic production, aspiring as "arsenal to the West." Global profits continued; Lockheed's 2025 forecast up.
• China's Gains: Maintained dual-track policy, profiting from war without direct involvement; potential access to Ukrainian tech if Russia wins.

2025: Ongoing War and Projections
By December 2025, benefits persist amid escalation risks.

• Russia: Military morale high; alliances with anti-West states deepened. Putin seen as demonstrating great-power status.
• Russian Elites: Wealth analysis shows 40% of sanctioned billionaires richer; new entries like Denis Frolov in software.
• West/NATO: EU pledged €90 billion (2026-2027); war transformed CFSP, bolstering defenses. Lessons from autonomy/resilience shape future strategies.
• Arms Industry: Ukraine's sector flourished, displaying at conferences; SIPRI reports 2024 profits boosted by war.
• China: Diplomatic/economic lifeline to Russia; benefits from low nuclear risk and Russia's non-loss.
• Ukraine's Potential: Post-war prosperity projected by 2025 if peace holds, via reconstruction and EU integration.

In summary, Russia and its elites gained territorially/economically but at high cost; the West enhanced security; arms firms profited immensely; China advanced strategically. These benefits, while substantiated, often exacerbate global instability, with no clear "winners" in a protracted conflict.

SDT take: US versus Russia proxy war status report 24 December 2024

Russian cultural recovery gaining momentum.

Russian oligarchs smiling.

Putin, a successful war time leader, now a legitimate great power player, more secure than ever in the catbird seat.

China smiling.

Western arms manufacturers smiling.

Western Europe, experiencing cultural and economic decline, waking up to need for self-defense... but it may be too late to sit at the big table given Putin's extraordinary "do more with less" rise to prominence.

Ukraine. Morphs into a neutral nation construction project, a supplier of natural resources and food. Current corrupt, inept leadership to secure living quarters in Doha or Zurich.

US post-cold war involvement in "the bloodlands" has been incompetent and disruptive. The four-year war management has been overseen by some of the most inept, incompetent leaders in US history and has accelerated the rise of truncated US power on the global stage.

Trump adrift, but he can recover. He must lure Russia away from China, by engineering a sign off on Putin's five points and executing a strong bilateral economic, trade, and science cooperation agreement with Russia. Trump must take the lead in exiling Ukraine's corrupt leadership first. Hopefully he can do this before Russia occupies Odessa (which would render Ukraine dysfunctional as a going concern country).

A multipolar world is trending but can be mitigated with a Trump/Putin, US/Russia front facing off against China.

One million military casualties. The whole escapade, all sides, seems immoral. No country occupies a moral high ground in this war, unless, maybe, its Russia in its desire to restore its fractured culture brought on by eighty years of destructive Bolshevism. It is ironic to see Russia's Putin led cultural energy burst forth in contrast to Western Europe's morph into an economically feeble, Bolshevik-like autocracy.