Putin in the catbird seat (8) Steven Kotkin Stealing my Speaker Notes
With Putin, ‘Ultimately, Trump Holds the Cards’ - WSJ
Kotkin's is a good piece. I agree with much of it.
We agree on:
1. Biden and company mismanaged the war forcing Ukraine to fight with one hand behind its back.
1. The need to see a peace agreement ASAP on the Ukraine War. Putin is winning and the status quo Russian gains need to be halted. Russia has the upper hand. Putin has strong incentives to keep fighting and wasn't prepared to enter into a transactional "deal" in Alaska.
2. Ukraine can't win the war consonant with their original war aims. But they can "win the peace." To do this they'll have to consider giving up some territory they claimed as sovereign jat prewar start three and a half years ago.
3. Ukraine must give up the idea of becoming a member of NATO.
4. Ukraine will need some kind of security guarantee as part of a "win the peace" agreement. Unimaginative Mwah (sic) has posited European (not NATO) security guarantees and post peace European nation boots on the ground. The imaginative Kotkin suggests Ukraine, with Western help, rebuild itself into a "steel porcupine (read robust military entity)," impervious to future invasion.
Areas where I need to add nuance to Kotkin's position.
1. Kotkin says Trump's management in the peace process is inconsistent. Perhaps, I say, I'm willing to give Trump some leeway on this.
2. Kotkin: “Putin is actually afraid of Trump. Trump is the only one who could hurt Putin in a big way.” Yes. But Putin doesn't believe the US will use all of its assets to put a stop to the war e.g. a greater US money commitment, boots on the ground etc.
Kotkin's Three Truths about Russia and the Ukraine War.
Kotkin Truth 1. Though Ukraine is losing, Russia is losing friends in the neighborhood, and its civilian economy has shut down.
Mwah (sic): Agree. But that's not the whole story. Don't consider its all bad for Putin. There are also Russian gains to consider. Russia now has firsthand knowledge, on the ground, of evolving, cutting edge, warfare practices... fiber optic cable drones impervious to radar, micro unit troop insertion deep into Ukrainian territory yada. Russia has strengthened her alliances and trade relations with BRICs. There is dissent in Russia. But there is also a growing loyalty among many citizens to the important cultural revival, ongoing since the end of Bolshevik times, of the Motherland. War can infuse cultural pride and accelerate cultural advancement.
Kotkin: Truth 2. Ukraine is an asset. US is learning the same things about new warfare techniques as Russia... albeit vicariously.
Mwah (sic): Agree, but the US learnings are one degree of separation from actual warfare. Kotkin doesn't use the term, "US versus Russia proxy war." But that's what it is. There is something, to me, unsettling about effectively hiring and seeing decimated a mercenary army (Ukrainian soldiers) to gain knowledge of cutting-edge ground war battle techniques.
Kotkin: Truth 3. "I applaud Trump's imposition of a negotiation process." Though his execution and follow through leave something to be desired, Trump's instincts are correct to want to end the war.
Mwah (sic): Agree. IMHO, however, it's too early to say that Trump's kabuki in Alaska and with Zalenski and the Euro heads in Washington was fruitless.
Kotkin: What should Trump do now?
Kotkin: Western economic pressure on Russia has been severe, but oil still flows enabling Russia to finance its war. West needs to put political pressure on Russia. Engage with (Kotkin says significant) patriotic, political opposition in Russia. In exchange for stopping war, US will engage with Russia in helping to develop its people and economy for the future.
Mwah (sic): Agree. Promise deals! Stealing my talking points! But I have said, deal with Putin himself on this topic, not his opposition. My suspicion that talks along this line occurred in Alaska and are ongoing. There is no reason that Russia and the US should be at war with one another.
Kotkin: "There are other things Mr. Trump could do. These include a removal of Russia’s Gazprombank from the Swift international banking system, to which it still has tenuous access, greenlighting the confiscation of $300 billion worth of Russian deposits in European banks, getting India to “buckle” and stop buying of Russian oil, and, most audacious, “cutting a deal with Xi Jinping behind Putin’s back to reduce China’s support for Russia in a bargain between the U.S. and China. It’s thinkable.”"
Mwah (sic) Disagree: I am not confident Putin will respond in the way Kotkin hopes. The war will be prolonged. Russia, over history, has demonstrated a great ability to suffer. With four times the manpower as Ukraine, they can string this war out. The war needs to be stopped, yes, even along the line of Putin's terms, now.
Kotkin: "Of all the threats Mr. Putin faces, Mr. Kotkin says again, “none is bigger than President Trump. Putin may smirk. He may walk down that red carpet in a strut. He may joke for the camera with President Trump. But ultimately, Trump holds the cards. And if the president uses those cards, he could unsettle Putin’s smirk, his self-confidence, and his maximalist demands. Will this happen? I don’t know. But it’s there for the taking.”"
Mwah (sic): Agree, but. Trump holds cards. But, Trump's cards, IMHO, as described by Kotkin, are not good cards. Trump delays ending the war by playing Kotkin cards. Trump has "good cards," but Kotkin didn't discuss Trump playing his good cards, which if played, imply significantly increased US commitment to the Ukraine war, with a likely cost of US lives and a further destabilized balance of power with the rise of BRICS and all that implies. WWIII anyone?
For me, Putin is still in the Catbird seat. The risks of escalation - Trump playing ALL of his cards - are too great. I don't think Kotkin's limited recommended actions will get Putin to the table. Putin has said he is willing to end the war subject to being able to keep Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine. Trump should aggressively seek a settlement not inconsistent with Kotkin's original settlement framework. Ukraine cedes Russian gained territory; Ukraine accepts non-NATO status; Ukraine becomes a steel porcupine with western help. Offer Russia carrots, per Kotkin recommendation, to pry them loose from BRICS. If Zalenski won't work with this program, he should be given a plane ticket to Zurich. Make haste, quickly, not slowly.