Putin in the Cat Bird Seat (4)

Trump has three options on how to react to Ukraine's 01 June 2025 drone attack which wiped out 40% of Russia's bomber fleet.

1. Own it. Declare that more is coming if Putin doesn't step up to the bargaining table with serious intent to end the war. It is doubtful IMHO that Trump/Hegseth had pre-awareness of the attack notwithstanding the fact that US/NATO operatives helped to facilitate the attack from behind the scenes. It is also doubtful IMHO that Russia is degraded to a level where they will sue for peace notwithstanding what LeMonde says:  Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian air bases expose Russia's vulnerability. Think of Russia's likely reaction to the drone attack as analogous to swatting a hornets' nest. Putin will escalate in response to Ukraine's drone attack.  Were Trump to "own" the attack, he would be seen to stand behind an escalation of the Ukraine War, a strategy supported by the traditional cold warrior US foreign policy establishment.  Trump's "own it" posture would be inconsistent with his prior position, that of deescalating hostilities and brokering a peace.   As a result of "owning it:" Trump is weakened as a US president.  The risks of WWIII, China continuing ascendency, and multi-polar go it alone adventurism around the world increases.

2.  Say/do little or nothing.  The four-dimensional chess explanation for Trump's ongoing indecisive behavior can only have purchase for so long.   The NATO attached, traditional US foreign policy establishment, or neo cons, gain purchase while Trump's effort to control the Department of Defense falters.   As a result of "saying/doing little or nothing" Trump is weakened as a US president. The risks of WWIII, China continuing ascendency, and multi-polar go it alone adventurism around the world increases.
3.  Announce immediate end to US funding Ukraine War.  Start direct negotiations with Putin to strengthen US/Russia economic cooperation - deals a la Saudi and Emirates.  There was no reason for US to engage in proxy war with Russia four years ago and there is no reason today.  Simultaneously engage in a cooperative effort with Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities.   This strategy, of course, means a Gordian Knot in NATO/neocon world, but the risks of WWIII are significantly diminished and Russia is pried loose from China.  The world is safer, and Trump gets his mojo back, an unlikely result under options 1 and 2.