Putin in the Cat Bird Seat
Three years ago, when Russia launched a military assault on Ukraine, much to the chagrin of many of my blog correspondents, I forecast a Russian victory. I noted that feckless and inept western leadership, flaccid western publics with little patience, and the historical capacity of the Russian population to suffer over the long haul would combine to create conditions leading to a favorable outcome for Russia. We are now there.... e.g. closing in on a Russian victory. My position at the outset of the war is summarized in the following link:
Ukraine Misadventure Two Years Later | Stephen DeWitt Taylor
Putin has already achieved most of the objectives he had at the outset of Russia's "Special Military Operation" against Ukraine. Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. Much of the Russian-speaking lands of Ukraine are already under Russia's control. The NATO alliance is back on its heels. Sanctions against Russia have failed. A multipolar world is now a reality. Europe's economy is weaker than before the war due to the boycott of Russian energy and the destruction of Nord Stream. The Russian army has modernized and become battle-hardened. Russia as a conservative, religious based society has been strengthened. Russia's global presence has been fortified. Russia's centrality as dominant influence in Eurasia has been certified.
Trump, having made a pre-election commitment to end the Ukraine war has also signaled his unwillingness to continue US financial support for the Ukraine war. Accordingly, he is without a strong negotiating position to end it. Putin today rejected (understandably?) Trump's latest proposal and has put forward new demands.
What more does Putin want? Today he put forward Russia's conditions for resolving the war where Russia now has the upper hand.
1. Ukraine will not join NATO. Ukraine must be "demilitarized" and "denazified." Trump's proposal is in synch with no NATO but calls for Ukraine to be militarized.
2. The entry of Crimea, DPR, LPR, Kherson region and Zaporizhia into Russia must receive international recognition. Trump has agreed to a Crimea carve out but not to the other territories.
3. Sanctions on Russia are to be lifted, and its frozen assets returned. The two sides are not far off on these points.
4. Russa rejects a U.S. proposal to transfer control of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant to Washington and Kiev.
5. Laws restricting the use of the Russian language, culture and church must be repealed in Ukraine. Heretofore, the U.S. has not considered these actions.
Further bolstering Putin's strong negotiating position is that Western support for Ukraine without US financial support will likely not materialize. Western Europe is in a weaker position today, boh culturally and economically, than at the start of the war. Ask J. D. Vance to corroborate.
No doubt Putin doesn't want the Ukraine war to go on forever. Six hundred thousand Russian casualties is not nothing. But, considering Russia's current position, i.e. being in the negotiator's cat bird seat... Putin's push to gain a stronger position post war resolution is understandable, where DJT's position is that he needs to find a rabbit in a hat.
Note: Comparisons of Putin to 1939 Hitler are misguided. Putin is no Hitler. He is a calculating tough guy trying to revive his dying nation, decimated culturally and economically by eighty years of Bolshevism. Putin does a defibrillation intervention seeking to consolidate culturally Russian lands while steering clear of Western, one world, progressivism. Also, Russia, with an economy the size of Italy's, has inadequate resources to mount a conventional assault on Europe.