Picto Diary - 21 to 27 April 2025 - The Veretex Forum, Scottsdale, AZ
Note: Vertex Forum: Selected takeaways only. I haven't referred to all presentations I attended. Notes transcription: mistakes, if any, are mine alone.
Above: Lon's Restaurant at the Hermosa Inn, Paradise Valley, AZ.
TIMDT in image. Dinner with Mezz and Magnolia. Mezz had stayed at Hermosa Inn when working on a project for Goldman Sachs in a previous life. Waved to fellow Vertex goer CC but didn't connect until next day at the event. Very capable server took time to give a tour guide's brief on the history of Lons.
The Hermosa Inn, originally built in 1935 by cowboy artist Alonzo "Lon" Megargee, served as his personal home and art studio. It was also a gambling den, featuring secret tunnels to evade law enforcement during illegal gambling parties. The inn has since been expanded and is now recognized as a historic hotel.
Above: Vertex Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Scottsdale, AZ. 24 April 2025.
7:30 PM cocktails for participating Hoover fellows and Vertex event goers. I had meaningful minutes with former national security advisor H. R. McMaster and classicist Victor Davis Hansen.
H. R. McMaster: Response to my query about Putin's putative support for Christianity as a buttress to Russian cultural rebound: "Patriarch Kirill plays no meaningful role in Russia today." SDT note: Russia offers haven for people seeking to escape 'liberal values'
Victor Davis Hansen: Response to my query about California water: "Some progress water distribution and availability Central Valley. Still no water catchment plans for coastal ranges. Insane take down of three dams on the Klamath River."
Above: Vertex Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Scottsdale, AZ. 25 April 2025.
Conversation on National Security.
Jim Mattis, Former Department of Defense head.
Philip Zelikow, Former diplomat.
Ria Roy, East Asia scholar
"Fires of National Security"
1. Growing AI impact on national security.
2. China "conflict" heats up over last six months. Tariffs have impacted.
3. Financial crisis risk non-trivial. 15%
4. Russian war in Europe. Growing risk of more conflict.
5. Containing the risk of Iran getting nuclear weapons.
6. US increasingly seen as an unreliable partner.
Three Options for America
1. Fortress America. We seem to be heading in this direction.
2. Head off China. Cut a deal for two spheres of influence.
3. Define new objectives. Secure support from allies.
Other takeaways...
Yesterday hopeful progress on Ukraine War peace negotiations.
China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran working together.
Ukraine will continue to fight even if US withdraws support.
Above: Above: Vertex Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Scottsdale, AZ. 25 April 2025.
Kiron Skinner, Hoover Fellow. Speaker topic. Trump 2.0.
Trump trying to find a way of bringing Russia out of global isolation.
SDT Comment: Skinner presentation, consistent with the tone in the above video, was generally supportive of administration direction citing strong talent, and good strategic planning developed during the past four years. No reason, after only 100 days, to think that DJT program is off the rails. Skinner pushed back affirmatively in Q and A on points questioning the president's approach.
Above: Pinnacle Peak, Scottsdale, AZ. 26 April 2025.
I joined the Hoover Hike. Huff puff. 300 vertical feet. First strenuous hike since my March 1 ski accident.
Above: Vertex Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Scottsdale, AZ. 26 April 2025.
Condi Rice and Philip Zelikow.
Two Putins:
1. He takes the proposed settlement. Certified Crimea. Eliminated US sanctions. No NATO guarantee for Ukraine.
2. Putin thinks he is winning. Putin continues to grind it out. Pushes for Ukraine defeat.
SDT view. IMHO Trump is between a rock and a hard place without a strong negotiating position to end the war. Putin has achieved most of the objectives he had at the outset of Russia's "Special Military Operation" against Ukraine. Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. Much of the Russian-speaking lands of Ukraine are already under Russia's control. The NATO alliance is back on its heels. Sanctions against Russia have failed. A multipolar world is now a reality. Europe's economy is weaker than before the war due to the boycott of Russian energy and the destruction of Nord Stream. The Russian army has modernized and become battle-hardened. Russia as a conservative, religious based society has been strengthened. Russia's global presence has been strengthened. Russia's centrality as dominant influence in Eurasia has been certified.
Above: Vertex Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Scottsdale, AZ. 26 April 2025.
Kevin Warsh, Former Fed Governor and Hoover Fellow.
Putative strong economy heavily influenced by excessive government spending and low interest rates that have benefited only half (asset holders) of Americans. Can't continue to grow the economy based on increasing government spending when debt reduction is essential. Powell's claim of a virtuous Fed is false. Fed's straying away from mandates of price stability and full employment into areas such as climate and influencing disparate impact render it partially culpable for US economic precariousness left to Trump by Biden. Biden financed the debt by rolling over short term debt. You can't run global economy on a credit card. I'm optimistic about direction Trump Treasury people are taking he new guys are doing a much better job in matching durations. After my speech to IMF yesterday, where I talked to this point, a number of IMF reps from Europe told me privately "I'm glad you said it."
Above: Vertex Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Scottsdale, AZ. 26 April 2025.
File image of Gerd Heidemann.
Presentation given by Erik Waken, Deputy Director, Hoover Institution.
Gerd Heidemann Collection Open for Research at Hoover | Hoover Institution
The Gerd Heidemann collection comprises more than 7,300 binders, approximately 800 audiocassettes, and more than 100,000 photographs, including approximately 20,000 photographic prints and glass plates from the estate of Heinrich Hoffmann—Adolf Hitler’s official photographer and a significant contributor to Nazi propaganda—dating back to the 1920s. The Gerd Heidemann collection is the most important private collection on the Third Reich acquired by a university archive, according to Thomas Weber, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Above: Vertex Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Scottsdale, AZ. 26 April 2025. (file image).
Victor Davis Hansen, Hoover classicist and current affairs pundit.
Four areas of focus.
1. Border. Illegal border crossings reduced by 99%.
2. Foreign Policy. After a sense that under Biden deterrence had been lost, there has been considerable progress on sea lane security. Red Sea, Black Sea, South China Sea, and Panama Canal. Ukraine: Casualties worse than Stalingrad. DJT pulling back from Ukraine financial support signals a move, not towards isolationism, but more towards a Jacksonian approach where US national interests are paramount.
3. Trade War/Tariffs. A lot of "Art of the Deal" rhetoric. Trump should make progress on rebalancing global trade as long as he resists saying that tariffs are a revenue raising strategy for the US. Much sturm und drang on markets. Fifty percent of Americans don't own assets. Globalization actions and low rates have denied non assett owners economic progress over last twenty or thirty years. Panic on market drop excessive.
4. Culture Wars. Trump aims at universities to eliminate DEI/woke. Universities fight against the Feds at their peril. Student loans at $1.7 trillion with 15% delinquency. Student loan program drove up university costs.
Addendum:
Loved going "with" you on this trip through your pictures and the insights you shared.
Survival and Hippo,
Hatch, UT
Hang in there, Steve. None of us get this far "Scott free"!
Trike,
Palo Alto, CA
Eye Lid, Head bleed, Hernia !!
Oh, dear. My prayer list is getting long. Heal quickly, Steve! Hope you recover quickly. 70’s is the new 50’s, as you have proved.
I was just mentioning to Mariko: “I know I am 85 (and the Pope died at 88), and while I don’t feel it, parts of my body do:” knees, L4/5 and S1, and naps are more frequent now, …. Also, can’t run across the street when the Walk sign starts blinking without my knees crying out.
Age arrives little by little, then suddenly. Easter Season reminds us that renewal is possible. The darkness of Good Friday followed by the daybreak of Easter. Follow TIMDT’s advice.
When I was 16, several of us went spearfishing off the Atlantic Ocean at the foot of Ft. San Lorenzo. We were loaded down with fins, goggles, snorkel, speargun and a gunny sack. We were looking for Barracuda – a splendid white meat fish.
Due to the battle described below, the seafloor is strewn with canon balls, about 400 years old, the fuses and gunpowder replaced with salt water.
“When Sir Henry Morgan attacked the fort to cross the isthmus to sack Panama City on the Pacific, the bombardment from ship to shore and fort to ship, left canon balls strewn all over the seabed. The expedition was set up in April 1670, and nine months later set off from Tortuga island off Hispaniola. The first port of call was Old Providence island which was captured from the Spanish after a ruse. After leaving a small garrison, a part of Morgan's force then sailed to the Panama Isthmus where Fort San Lorenzo on the mouth of the Río Chagres stood. The fort was captured after a bloody assault, following which Morgan and the rest of the force arrived a week later. Using the fort as a base of operation and communication, the Privateers set off across the Isthmus. After nearly a week's march across the jungle, with many starving, they managed to repel a number of Spanish ambushes and then arrived at the outskirts of Panama itself.
Outside the city, Morgan's privateer army routed a force of Spanish militia at the Battle of Mata Asnillos.[10] They subsequently swept in capturing the city, which then led to it being sacked, plundered and burned. Morgan's privateer army subsequently raided the entire area including the offshore islands in the Gulf of Panama. Although the booty was high, with such a large force the net income for every privateer was lower than expected. The privateer army then set off on the return journey across the isthmus without incident, razing Fort San Lorenzo to the ground.”
We filled the gunny sacks with cannon balls (no fish) and climbed up the wall of the fort. The short vertical climb with a great deal of gear, was steep in the hot tropical sun. (See photos.)
After taking the train back to Panama, I was showering at home and noticed a bulge at my lower right quarter. No pain but I was no longer Adonis-symmetrical (I was 16, in good shape, taking Judo lessons, etc.); now, with mismatched abdominal quarters. Oh my, the doctor said it was a hernia and needed to be repaired to ensure no digestive organs got pinched.
My father arranged an operation at Gorgas Hospital. This was in 1956 before arthroscopic surgery. I spent two nights and two days. After the surgery, a West Indian orderly visited me and says: “Time to get up and walk. Also you must pee to make sure the connections are correct.” All was in order! He told me about his life on the islands before he came to work in the Canal Zone. “In Jamaica, I was a British subject; in the Canal Zone, I am a US object.” I have never forgotten this.
I recovered. Yet. 60 years later, the right side sprang a hernia. Not sure why. The surgical sciences had improved. I checked into a surgery center at 11 am. I was out a 2 and told not to drive. The only damage done was that I arrived with an “inny belly button and came out with an outty belly button.”
Those are my hernia stories. Get well soon! We need you to rally the troops for the Mid-Terms. They do “eyelids” well in Beverly Hills. So, if you stop in we will guide you about until they take the bandages off. As for head bleeds, that is serious. Cedars has a head trauma ward. Mariko spent time there after a fall. The bleeding stopped and she recovered fully. (Maybe the eyelid issue is connected to the head injury?)
Best wishes,
Panama,
Los Angeles, CA
Glad you are in the hands of excellent practitioners. It is a bitch getting older. I’ve gone to most those same individuals and most of it has been negative . Hope you continue to get feeling better. 😎🇺🇸🤩✅
Thanks,
Mr. Z3,
La Quinta, CA
To my family and friends, who wonder what I do with my time. I enthusiastically encourage everyone to volunteer....somewhere....it makes a difference
