Michael McFaul. Putin is not to be trusted. - 09 December 2025

Above: Michael McFaul, Senior Fellow Hoover Institution and former US Ambassador to Russia. 09 December 2025.

Earlier today I attended - Zoom - a Hoover Institution insider policy briefing by Michael McFaul.

My written question was presented to McFaul in the Q and A. Here it is:

The US 2025 National Security Strategy says the US needs “reestablish strategic stability with Russia.” That's not going to happen if NATO keeps expanding and a door is kept open for Ukraine to join NATO as seems to be the wont of Starmer, Macron and Merz. How will this dichotomy be resolved? Is the existence of NATO itself at risk?

In addressing the US imperative to "reestablish strategic stability with Russa" part of my question, McFaul said, to the effect, " It won't happen." Why? Paraphrasing... Putin himself doesn't want strategic stability with the US. Putin views the US as his enemy. As an autocrat, Putin hates democracy and doesn't want to be seen to be politically or economically aligned with democratically run countries.

McFaul addressed the "if NATO keeps expanding" part of my question. The commonly told tale that NATO wants to expand east, which has been posited by some as the reason Putin attacked Ukraine in 2002, is false according to McFaul.

McFaul did not address directly the possibility of a schism in NATO part of my question. He had earlier dismissed the idea of an expansionist NATO, so the implication was that in his view there was no Macron/Merz/Starmer push to flex NATO muscles in the first place. ****

McFaul referred to his new book, "Autocrats versus Democrats." Image of cover follows:

Above: "Autocrats vs. Democrats." Analysis of how China and Russia challenge global democracy, examining their alliance, economic power, and America's role in confronting these unprecedented threats. I have ordered a copy of this book and intend to read it.

I have long advocated for a strategic reset between Russia and the US and a shutdown of the Ukraine war. In holding that belief I have felt that Russia doesn't represent a strategic threat to the US, or even Western Europe for that matter. So, when I saw that the 2025 National Security Strategy called for such a reset my first reaction was great(!) onward and upward. I.e. DJT should "bravely" cut a peace deal with Ukraine and Russia that freezes Russian territorial gains in place, declares Ukrainian neutrality, affirms no Ukraine NATO membership, confirms a 600k man Ukraine military, advances a Ukraine public/private rebuild, and starts a strategic reset between the US and Russia. While such a deal would seem to be at odds with major NATO member preferences, France, UK and Germany would just have to suck it up.

But then, wait. Is Trump engaged in more Kabuki? Does he really want a strategic reset with Russia or doesn't he? Just yesterday, off the coast of Venezuela, the USS Stockdale did not simply passively monitor a Russian tanker delivering refined oil to Caracas, it actively inserted itself between a sanctioned tanker and its destination, turning routine sanctions run into a high-stakes confrontation. Maybe McFaul is right. Putin views the US as an enemy. And maybe, Trump, formerly wanting to do deals (strategic stability reset) with Russia, now sees the wisdom of McFaul's position. i.e. Russia sees the US as an enemy and not as a future partner.

McFaul has a PhD from Oxford and was US ambassador to Russia. McFaul knows Putin personally. I've been to Russia four times as a tourist, but that doesn't equate to McFaul's credentials. McFaul has to be listened to. That's why, though I support a US strategic partnership with Russia, and he doesn't, I have to read his book to find out his reasons for taking a position I had heretofore thought wrong.

**** I'm a fallible note taker. Hopefully, by promoting McFaul's book any nuanced mistake I made in notetaking will be overlooked!