McRaven on Autonomous Warfare - 22 February 2026

Above: Admiral (ret) William McRaven (image file copy). Speaker at Morgan Stanley client Zoom meeting. 19 February 2025.

During a wide-ranging discussion on military issues, Admiral McRaven was asked about future military weapons development. He talked about two-hundred-foot-long unmanned missile carrying ships and more generally about the imminence of autonomous warfare.

I was reminded of my reading of Jack Carr's penultimate novel, "Red Sky Mourning." This novel is not just a thriller. It contains great insights on the global political scene and posits a much-changed future world in international relations as AI, synthetic biology, and autonomous war fare emerging in the future.

"Red Sky Mourning" by Jack Carr | Stephen DeWitt Taylor

Here is a Grok paragraph on autonomous warfare:

As of early 2026, the prevailing international consensus on autonomous warfare—centered on lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS), or "killer robots"—holds that existing international humanitarian law fully applies to their development and use, but urgent new regulation is essential due to profound ethical, humanitarian, legal, and security risks, including loss of meaningful human control over life-and-death decisions, lowered thresholds for conflict, proliferation dangers, and an accelerating arms race. A broad majority of UN member states (over 150 in recent votes), supported by the UN Secretary-General, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and civil society groups like the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, advocate for a legally binding instrument by the end of 2026 that would prohibit the most unacceptable systems (e.g., those targeting humans without human oversight) while regulating others to ensure meaningful human control; this view is reflected in strong UN General Assembly resolutions and growing support within the CCW's Group of Governmental Experts, where a "rolling text" forms a basis for negotiations despite ongoing deadlock caused by consensus requirements and opposition from major military powers including the United States, Russia, China, India, and Israel, which resist bans and prioritize technological flexibility. The 2026 CCW Review Conference represents a critical deadline, with experts warning that further delays risk rendering regulation obsolete amid rapid military AI advances.

Autonomous warfare... rollback machines... transhumanism...digital currency... digital ID's. Only God knows what's in store for humanity as tech gains momentum. As for me and my house I can only say that it was good living at the apex.

Addendum:

Moderator asked Admiral McRaven about how he made decisions in situations of high complexity. McRaven said it was important to pick highly qualified people, to invite them into the decision-making process, listen to their inputs and then to make the decision. I couldn't have said it better myself.... not that Morgan Stanley is inviting me to opine on such to their clients.