Iran, Crunch Time.

Iran. Crunch time.

I fear the west underestimates Iran's long-term staying power, like it has Russia's staying power advantage versus Ukraine. I fear that Iran has potential to outlast Israel's remarkable, preemptive, roman candle burst. Irani leaders, zealous believers in the ascendency of the Islamic Caliphate, are not likely to give up on their messianic quest... particularly as the Caliphate shows measured progress, albeit slowly, in subduing Europe. US capability to take out Fordow with bunker buster bombs is not a slam dunk. Are we to assume that the Iranis didn't contemplate bunker buster risk when they constructed Fordow? Five Irani rockets a day on Tel Aviv over the course of eighteen months might not damage that many buildings, but it would do beaucoup damage to the Israeli psyche.

Trump, now channeling Hamlet, is drifting to one of two potential outcomes: 1. Weakened position as a global hegemon. 2. Subdue Iran, hold US global hegemony and deterrence capability, but only with significant military commitment including US boots on the ground, fractured support from his political base, and likely a belt tightening global recession... not a good situation for the 2026 mid-terms. I give each of the two foregoing potential dreary outcomes an even chance. Hunker down, either way. Trump didn't cause this. He was dealt an almost impossible hand by Autopen. But in two weeks his presidency will be defined by his "within-two-weeks" decision. Post decision, he, not Autopen, will own the outcome.

I hope I am wrong, but I don’t see a painless way out of this.