GM... Stick To Your Knitting - 27 October 2026

I am currently evaluating the purchase of either or both of the Cadillac Escalade-V and the Cadillac CT5-V Blackwing. The Escalade-V uses a hand-built, supercharged 6.2L V8 (LT4-derived with a larger ~2.65L supercharger) producing 682 hp and 653 lb-ft. The CT5-V Blackwing uses a hand-built, supercharged 6.2L V8 (LT4-based with a 1.7L Eaton supercharger) producing 668 hp at 6,500 rpm and 659 lb-ft at 3,600 rpm, with a redline around 6,500–6,600 rpm. Both are fabulous vehicles, vehicles on which GM has a strong record of sales with good margins.

It was much to my surprise when I read GM’s recent “GM Forward” announcements which emphasize AI, central computing platforms (claimed up to 40x more powerful), LMR (lithium manganese-rich) batteries, a Gen-4 EV architecture targeting lower costs/weight/parts, expanded Super Cruise/autonomy, and faster development cycles... —while still selling large volumes of profitable ICE trucks and SUVs like my Cadillac preferences. This is framed as a response to Chinese competition and a path to mainstream EVs. However, recent performance and structural factors give several reasons this tech/EV-oriented strategy could underperform relative to a tighter focus on gas/diesel (ICE) vehicles.

GM should abandon its pro-EV tech strategy—an approach in which it is unlikely to succeed especially considering Tesla's success to date and low-cost Chinese manufacturer EV success. GM should concentrate on what it does best: building the best gas-powered, high-performance vehicles. I believe that market is poised to rebound as a counterweight to the range limitations, high costs, and regulatory pressures surrounding EVs.

GM's record to date on EVs is sketchy. U.S. EV sales for GM collapsed after the federal $7,500 tax credit ended (for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025). In Q3 2026, GM delivered roughly 25,000–25,500 EVs, down about 62% year-over-year from a record quarter in 2025, accounting for only ~3.8% of its ~671,000 total U.S. sales. Models like the Equinox EV fell ~92%, with similar steep drops for Blazer EV, Silverado EV, Hummer EV, and others. Through the first nine months of 2026, EV volume was down ~43%.

Overall U.S. EV share has fallen (to roughly 5–6% in recent data), while hybrids and pure ICE have held up or gained in places. Consumer concerns center on range (often the top barrier), charging time/availability, upfront cost, and resale. Some households that tried EVs have switched back to gasoline vehicles. In the U.S.—with longer average driving distances, abundant relatively affordable fuel, and a preference for large trucks/SUVs—ICE remains the default for many buyers, especially outside coastal/urban early-adopter segments. Without sustained subsidies or rapid infrastructure buildout, volume may stay niche.

GM’s full-size ICE pickups (Silverado, Sierra) and SUVs generate high margins and have driven recent strong revenue (including a record ~$50 billion quarterly figure tied to those models plus software services). EVs have consistently lost money, leading to large write-downs: cumulative EV-related charges in the $7–11+ billion range since late 2025, covering supplier settlements, capacity reductions, asset impairments, and contract adjustments. The company has already idled or scaled back EV plants/lines and shifted capacity back toward ICE in places.

Continuing heavy investment in EV platforms, batteries, and software while those products remain unprofitable at scale diverts capital from the cash-generating core. A pure ICE focus would avoid these losses and preserve flexibility.

GM is betting on LMR prismatic cells (with LG Energy Solution) for 2028 EV vehicles: promised energy density closer to high-nickel chemistries at LFP-like costs, enabling better range or lower pack costs, plus platform improvements (claimed ~15% mass reduction, 20% efficiency gains, fewer parts). However, LMR has historically faced voltage fade, cycle-life, and manufacturing challenges (moisture sensitivity, yield issues at scale). Executives have called the bet “ambitious and risky”; lab success does not guarantee high-volume production economics or real-world durability matching warranties. Scale-up delays or shortfalls could repeat prior cost overruns.

As a legacy automaker, GM also faces software, AI, and autonomy integration hurdles compared with pure-play tech or EV specialists. Dealers have incentives misaligned with EVs (lower service revenue). Past timelines (e.g., aggressive all-EV goals) have slipped, and cultural/organizational change for “intelligence-defined” vehicles is nontrivial.

Tesla retains dominant U.S. EV share; Chinese makers hold major cost, scale, and battery-supply advantages globally (though U.S. tariffs and policy limit direct entry for now). GM must close gaps in cost, software polish, and charging ecosystem while funding the transition from ICE profits. For larger vehicles that are GM’s strength, battery weight, range under load/towing, cold-weather performance, and charging remain practical disadvantages versus ICE or optimized hybrids.

U.S. policy has shifted away from aggressive EV mandates and incentives, reducing regulatory pressure and purchase support. Charging infrastructure still lags for convenient mass adoption, especially for non-homeowners or high mileage/work use. Global markets differ (stronger EV push in China/Europe), but GM’s core profits and volumes remain U.S.-centric around ICE platforms. In short, the GM Forward strategy carries high near-term financial risk, depends on technology and demand that have so far under-delivered without subsidies, and risks undercutting GM’s proven high-margin ICE strengths. A narrower ICE/hybrid focus would likely deliver more reliable profits and cash flow with lower execution risk, while still allowing selective EV investment as economics improve. Long-term global trends and competitive threats exist, but the 2025–2026 data illustrate how quickly the U.S. EV thesis can reverse.

GM. Stick to your knitting. Push out those high-performance ICE cars. The market is there. Watch your performance soar!