Dan Wang on China Tech - 10 March 2026
Above: Dan Wang. Dan Wang is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, in its Hoover History Lab and is one of the most-cited experts on China’s technological capabilities. He is the author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future (W. W. Norton [US] and Penguin [UK], Fall 2025).
Today I attended a virtual (zoom) Insider's Policy Briefing for donors to, and invited guests of, The Hoover Institution.
Dan Wang said a lot... but here are my main takeaways:
China has no ideological ken with Iran or Venezuela. China's interests are purely transactional.
China's dependency on Iran oil is less than might be perceived in today's exaggerated "headline" media climate. China has four months of oil reserves on hand. In her mission to be the world's preeminent manufacturing power she is growing electrical output at double the rate of the US. Here is my Grok search (not Wangs) to illustrate the energy growth point:
For a clearer year-by-year view (select key years from available tables, 2009–2024):
- 2009: China 3,715 TWh | US 3,940 TWh
- 2010: China 4,207 TWh | US 4,114 TWh
- 2023: China 9,456 TWh | US 4,254 TWh
- 2024: China 10,073–10,087 TWh | US 4,387 TWh
Significant "green energy" projects are afoot in the empty western deserts of China. Most people live on the coasts. Over 50% of China's energy comes from coal and that percentage will stay the same, or even grow, in coming years... meaning new coal fired plants year after year. China pays no fealty to the idea of designing her economy according to the demands of the climate lobby. China's energy push is to have diversified sources to secure a domestic energy independence.
China will lead in manufacturing and manufacturing technology for the foreseeable future... except for aviation and high-end chips.
China's domestic economy is anemic with a property overhang and bad debts in her banking system. This will not however, impede her push to dominate world manufacturing and manufacturing tech.